Sticky Toffee: Wolves 1 Everton 2

Analysis of the defeat to Everton and general concerns around Wolves' form

The home defeat to Everton on Tuesday night has left serious questions around Wolves form. One win in eight, a general lack of goals and costly mistakes at the back; Nuno has a big task on his hand to turn around the form in the short term.

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Looking back, you might say Wolves were unlucky. Wolves had 13 shots to Everton’s 5. Fabio Silva had a decent chance in the first half, Ruben Neves hit the post from a free kick in the second, while Michael Keane’s excellent header felt like a real sucker punch. You might even argue Wolves should have had a penalty in the dying seconds of the game.

Jacqui Oatley @JacquiOatley

Clever/naughty from Mina, elbowing Hoever in the head in the box as the Wolves defender attempted to score from a corner in the 93rd minute. Missed by the ref and seemingly VAR too (as well as the other players). Hoever in too much pain to protest. #wwfc

• And yet, as the second half wore on there was a growing sense of inevitability that Everton would score and take the three points. With Morgan Gibbs-White leaving the pitch (having only just returned from a lengthy injury) and Neto taking a knock, we looked short on energy and attacking intent.

Everton themselves offered very little, but managed to score with one of their few meaningful attacks in the second half. As you can see in the below shot map, we created the best chance of the game (Neves goal), but like Everton the other chances we created were not the biggest.

xG shot map courtesy of @Caley_graphics

However, there is no point feeling sorry for ourselves as there is still plenty to unpick from that performance. So what went wrong? Let’s have a look.

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Passive defensive play

What has been alarming about Wolves this season (and perhaps since first lockdown) is how passive some of our defensive play has been. Under Nuno, Wolves have rarely set up to press high as a game plan. In the past three years our defensive set up has largely been based around a mid-block, where we invite the ball into wide areas where we can aggressively steal the ball and counter-attack at great speed.

The Iwobi goal is a perfect example of our passiveness:

Iwobi opens the scoring

Mina, Iwobi, Rodriguez and Digne all able to execute what they wanted to do under minimal pressure. By the time the ball gets to Digne, there’s not a great deal Semedo can do but try to prevent the ball going across goal. It’s cut back, and no one has tracked Iwobi’s run. Granted, it’s a good finish, but it sums up our issues quite well.

The other chance Everton had in the first half came as a result of more passive defending.

Despite having good numbers around the ball, no one manages to apply enough pressure on Iwobi and allow the ball to be played inside to Rodriguez. To make matters worse, the lack of pressure on Iwobi means he also gets a free run into the space behind.

Fortunately, Rodriguez’s pass is slightly too wide so Iwobi has to try and shoot across goal and Rui makes a fairly comfortable save. This is a worrying theme of our games, where we concede as a result of passive defending.

Nuno has talked about having more possession, creating more and score more goals. If he wants to do that, we are going to have to be more aggressive in our press. For most of his tenure, we have defended in a mid-block, setting traps in wide areas to steal the ball and break. Admittedly, we are missing players like Jonny, Raul and even Jota who employed those tactics so well - but to dominate possession you have to win the ball back more often, and that will mean playing a higher line. With us more regularly playing with a back four, this is something Nuno is going to have to work in to our way of playing.

Flat midfield three

With what we had available, I don’t really blame Nuno for his initial team selection. Gibbs-White as a ‘false nine’ had some merit (and we’ve had success with it once or twice in the past) but in the long run, I think we will need to be picking from two out of Neves, Moutinho and Dendoncker to go in the midfield with an attacking midfielder in front of them. On Tuesday, we often ended up with Dendoncker receiving it in positions on the right side of the pitch, where we need a player who can turn and play forwards or dribble with the ball and commit defenders.

Dendoncker retains possession but rarely progresses the ball

Dendoncker has a lot of excellent qualities, but someone who can progress the ball he is not. Moving forward, I think he’d be better used shielding the back four, breaking up counter attacks and on the odd occasion make late runs into the penalty area (though his finishing is woeful!). If we had been able to get Gibbs-White into those type of positions, with a forward in front of him, we may have been able to create clearer opportunities from those positions.

Player position map taken from whoscored.com

Not for the first time, we didn’t have enough forward options in front of the ball. Neto (7) is the furthest forward attacker with Silva (17) stuck on the left defending for too much of the game and Gibbs-White (18) playing as a withdrawn forward. This is another part of the reason going forwards I would play Podence or Gibbs-White with Neves and Dendoncker/Moutinho in the deeper midfield positions. We lack depth to our attack and as a result, we are easier and more predictable to play against. When Traore and Podence return from injury, this problem may ease and if we can get Patrick Cutrone up to speed quickly, that may give us a better focal point.

Hoever for Gibbs-White

We knew Gibbs-White would be on limited minutes having only recently returned from injury. He did pretty well individually, but you could see him visibly tire just before he was taken off.

The decision to bring Hoever on however, was a negative one and quite odd. As Gibbs-White had operated centrally, you might have expected Vitinha to take his place. Or to give us a natural forward through the middle, the introduction of Cutrone would have made sense too. Even Meritan Shabani and Theo Corbeanu, impressive performers in the U23s this season, represented attacking options on the bench for us. Instead, an 18 year old right back was added to the forward line.

It sent a message that we were quite content with a point. Hoever had come on in a similar position against Crystal Palace in the FA Cup in the previous game and helped the team see out a 1-0 win. In this game though, we needed him to provide attacking threat. He wasn’t short of endeavour, but he is not a creative attacker and that showed when he received the ball in the final third

Had we had a more natural attacking player in those positions, they may have been able to take a player on and get into the box. Had it been a player who prefers to drift inside, it may have allowed Semedo to overlap earlier and receive in more dangerous spaces behind the Everton defensive line. Overall, it showed our lack of depth in this position at the moment, particularly with the change in formation to a 433/4231. I would argue that a more pressing area for a signing would be a wide option, as Neto and Traore are the only true options in this position, particularly while Podence is being utilised through the middle of the pitch as a number ten.

So what needs to change?

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Maintaining intensity and pressing higher

As I said earlier, if we want to commit to dominating games more often - we are going to have to press higher and more importantly, more often. We have the fewest number of pressures (356) in the attacking third of the pitch in the entire league. We also tend to rank low in the league for passes per defensive action (PPDA). Our patient approach out of possession doesn’t really fit with the approach we are taking in possession and that is where we are looking disjointed in my opinion.

Applying quicker pressure will help us to regain possession and build attacks

As a result, our best periods in games are ones like that 15-20 minute period around the Neves equaliser. We denied them space to play short from the back, they didn’t have an outlet with pace up front so couldn’t threaten behind our defence and it allowed us to constantly recycle possession into dangerous positions. Our approach in the final third needs some refining, but the more often we get the ball in those positions the more we will improve. This will need to be the case in the Black Country Derby; West Brom will want to sit deep, and their forward options are limited in a similar way to how Everton’s were. Admittedly, it’s a big change for Nuno and the players in less than ideal circumstances, but it’s one we need to commit to more confidently.

Two out of three ain’t bad

The 433 shape with Neves behind two ‘number eights’ has some merits, and with the signing of a ball progressing midfielder, is feasible. At this moment of time though, I would argue our squad is best suited to playing a number ten.

Neither of Moutinho or Dendoncker are providing much in the way of goal threat. Moutinho is obviously more creative but his influence on games is less so than this time last year. Playing one of those two next to Neves will bring different benefits but will allow a player like Gibbs-White or Podence (when fit), to play between the opposition lines of defence and work closer to our forward players. Traore himself has looked far more threatening with another attacking player in front of him or around him.

Returning players from injury

Ignoring the longer term casualties such as Jimenez or Jonny (though the latter doesn’t sound too far away from a return), getting Boly, Marcal, Podence and Traore all back in the squad will make a huge difference.

Missing the big man

At the back a fully fit Boly, which we haven’t had for a good while, will certainly help us with some of our issues defending aerially. Though Saiss has been a goal threat, he has made some costly mistakes of late and as important a squad member as he is, Boly is the superior footballer. Marcal (or Jonny) would allow Rayan Ait-Nouri to have a breather once in a while. He’s had some good games and is growing as a creative force from left back but can be naive at times defensively.

Offensively, when Podence has played as a ten in the 4231, I’ve really liked what I have seen. He’s not always as effective as we’d like but he helps link the midfield with the attack nicely and can create opportunities in tight spaces. Traore back in the team is a must, as he was just finding some form and producing in the final third.

It sounds a bit like making excuses, but we will be able to judge the change in shape and style more accurately when we get to see what a full strength, consistent eleven looks like.

I’d be keen to see something like this in the near future:

A potential 4231 for Wolves?

For now, the most important thing is getting results - starting with you know who.