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This could all be in vain.
Come the end of the month Patrick Cutrone could be on his way out again, whether that be on loan or permanently.
For the time being though, he’s back at Wolves and clearly under consideration for selection having spent 2020 back in Italy at Fiorentina.
What went wrong?
Arriving for a reported £16m from AC Milan, Cutrone was the ‘marquee’ signing of summer 2019. In 2017-18, he had a breakthrough season in Italy where he scored 18 goals in all competitions, and followed that up with 9 goals in 2018-19. His influence had waned somewhat in that second season and Milan were prepared to sell him to raise funds but it was still an exciting deal for a Wolves team preparing for a first European campaign in nearly 40 years.
So where did it go wrong? Or did it? Broadly speaking, he got 3 goals in 20 appearances, which is nothing to shout about. But if we dig a little deeper, maybe it wasn’t all bad.
Initially, Cutrone was signed to compete with Diogo Jota to play alongside Raul Jimenez in the 3-5-2 which Wolves had enjoyed a lot of success with in the second half of the 2018-19 season. He got a fair amount of game time to begin with, especially while Wolves were rotating their team to cope with the additional Europa League fixtures. He got his first goal in the 5-2 home defeat to Chelsea, but the goals didn’t flow straight away. In those opening couple of months, there were chances he either missed or brought good saves from the goalkeeper.
I’ve always had a feeling that had a couple of those efforts gone in, perhaps the narrative would have been slightly different. There was a feeling he wasn’t quite ready to be trusted as the main forward but perhaps he actually was a pretty capable back up? Raul Jimenez was spearheading the attack as Wolves had returned to the 343 and even worse for Cutrone, the team was being rotated less in Europe as we had found our rhythm. Raul is one of the best number 9s in Europe, so it was hardly a crime at this early stage in his Wolves career to not be at his standard at just 21 years old.
Additionally, Cutrone’s style was not really suited to the counter-attacking approach regardless of formation, where he would need to cover large spaces quickly and hold the ball up. He is better utilised pressing higher up the pitch, and making runs off the shoulder of the opposing defenders.
You could see the emotion in his celebration when he added a late goal in the home game against West Ham, a tidy finish! After that game he would only play roughly another 5 minutes off the bench (vs Brighton and Norwich) in the league. It was all a little strange, as the team was rotated over the Christmas period, Patrick was nowhere to be seen. It became clear that he was frustrated over his lack of minutes, coupled with a failure to settle in Wolverhampton. He was looking to leave.
The narrative is that he ‘flopped’. When I did some analysis of Wolves’ goals, his numbers were still pretty good in what were limited minutes. His three goals (two league, one cup) came in a total of 777 minutes, or roughly 8 and a half ‘90s’. Considering he only started 8 games, it isn’t so bad. His expected goals in all competitions (xG) was 3.4, which gives him a rate of 0.54 xG per 90 minutes. By contrast, Fabio Silva has an xG of 1.9 from 527 minutes, a rate of 0.33 xG per 90 minutes.
It remains to be seen what he could have achieved with a larger set of minutes, but as Raul Jimenez scored 17 (and generated 14.7 xG) last season, I don’t think Patrick would have disgraced himself in terms of a goal tally. The fact that Raul was always available and a struggle to settle in England prevented that opportunity. Circumstances rather than ability seem to be the key issue from his time in the Wolves squad.
How did he do in Florence?
In the minutes he actually got, on the face of it he did OK. He arrived just after a new manager did (so may bring questions other whether he was his signing) but in 945 minutes, he scored 5 goals. His xG in the league was exactly 4 (which is how many goals he got) and his xG per 90 was 0.43, which again is a pretty healthy return. I watched him a couple of times during the first lockdown last year, where he lined up with Frank Ribery behind him in a sort of 352, and he operated well as the focal point of their attack.
Once again though, the minutes dried up. He fell out of favour. Last month, Fiorentina changed managers again and he appeared even less. Fiorentina have struggled for form this season, so perhaps Patrick had been seen as a luxury that they can not afford right now. It’s hardly like he is not a willing worker though, last season at Fiorentina he was one of the players with the most pressures per 90 minutes, and had the most pressures per 90 minutes in the attacking third of the pitch amongst his team mates in Florence.
In terms of creating chances for others however, he did lag behind somewhat. Unsurprisingly, Kouame, Ribery, Chiesa and Agudelo were all attacking players who created more shots for team mates per game. A lack of involvement in the build up of attacks could be what hindered him, or perhaps something behind closed doors to observers looking in (such as application in training).
What can he add to this Wolves side now?
If he wants, there is a great opportunity for Cutrone to not only resurrect his Wolves career but prove himself as a top-level attacker. With no Jimenez for the foreseeable, he could be afforded the regular minutes he will have argued he needed.
The current system may also suit him more than when he first arrived. A 4231, with a number ten looking to connect the midfield and attack offers more support and movement around him than the 352 he made most of his starts in. What Wolves have lacked without Jimenez (and arguably even before his injury) was someone to run in behind and be a threat in the penalty area.
Even before Jimenez’s injury, we were struggling to create chances for him in the box. Two of his four goals had been efforts from outside the box, whereas all six league goals Cutrone scored last season came inside the penalty area (with three further shots in the six yard box that he did not score from). There’s a glimmer of hope that what Cutrone might be able to offer is a threat in the box in this 4231 with our defensive line a little higher, whereas he would have to do more work in a 343/352 where we sit deeper out of possession.
Neto, Podence and Traore are generally all players who like the ball to feet before dribbling past opponents, resulting in a lack of penetrating runs and threat behind opposition back lines. Although Fabio Silva could well be a threat in the penalty area long term, he isn’t quite getting in the positions consistently enough at this stage. As well as having a knack for finding space between and behind opponents, Cutrone is also physically stronger and more likely to be a threat when crossing from wide areas (as Neto and Traore tend to do).
It will certainly be interesting to see what Cutrone can summon in a short space of time to prove he is worth pursuing as a first team option. He should be fresh, but may be short on match fitness so how he performs in the early minutes he gets (and in training) could be vital for him. Perhaps he can step in and fill Raul’s shoes as best we might hope.