The great reset: Chelsea 0 Wolves 0

It wasn't pretty, but are the foundations are being (re)laid for a strong second half of the season?

In the final part of my half-term report, I wrote this in regard to how we end our poor run of form:

Whether Nuno takes a back to basics approach or persists in playing with a back four, we will eventually get the luck that has been missing at times in the past ten games.

On the basis of yesterday’s game, it appears Nuno has elected to go with the former. A point away from Chelsea is not to be sniffed at but it was a point earned in dogged fashion, with Wolves spending much of the game in their own half without the ball. A first clean sheet since October was extremely welcome.

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The shape

Wolves lined up in a 3412, with two wide forwards and a ‘false nine’ at the top of the pitch. At the back, the three central defenders were also heavily protected by two defensive midfielders and wing-backs on each side.

Wolves defended deep in a 3412

The way the team defended was reminiscent of the game two seasons ago at Stamford Bridge. In that game, Wolves had two shots all game, but actually took the lead through Raúl Jiménez following some magic from him and Diogo Jota on the counter attack. Wolves spent the entire game, even at 0-0, with a very deep defensive line. Eden Hazard equalised right at the death but it was a good point. In Wednesday night’s game, Wolves had four shots but slightly less possession (21%!).

The back three were important in preventing Kai Havertz and Hakim Ziyech (both playing as ‘tens’ either side of Olivier Giroud) time and space to turn and penetrate the Wolves defence. In particular, it was important Max Kilman and Willy Boly defended those half spaces well, otherwise this would have gifted Havertz and Ziyech the opportunity to combine with players in front of them and create chances to score.

Wolves’ three centre backs did a good job preventing space between the lines

Defending as deep as Wolves did was perhaps a necessary evil to allow Wolves to begin to lay the foundations for the rest of the season. However, to go and get the wins they need to kickstart their season they will need to hold a higher defensive line and take opportunities to play in the opponent’s half and sustain possession. Saturday’s fixture at Crystal Palace should give them a chance to do so, against a team who do not press so high up the pitch.

The Kilman Factor

Max Kilman has returned to the team in the last two games (unsure if Romain Saïss had a knock as he missed the Chorley squad entirely) and been a steady influence. He goes about his business quietly, defending his space well without being particularly quick or physically imposing, which I think is a testament to his reading of the game.

The Chelsea game on Wednesday was his 11th Premier League start. In those games Wolves have only conceded 8 goals. He has very rarely let the team down. In fact his only poor individual performance (only time we’ve conceded more than one with him starting) came when shifted to the right of the back three against Burnley, which was certainly not his fault. Four of those games have also resulted in clean sheets.

While I think we need a new centre back to take us to another level, Kilman represents good solid squad option. The time may come where he needs to go on loan or even leave permanently to get game time, but for now we know he can be relied on when picked.

This radar from @DSamangy demonstrates this nicely. Not particularly outstanding in any position but not poor anywhere either. He’s good in the air, defends well against the dribble and his technical ability and progressing passing is more than capable. When we play a back three this season, I would not worry should he continue to be selected.

Golden opportunity for Neto

Despite our ultra-defensive approach in this game, Wolves still managed to fashion the best chance of the game. If you look at the timeline of the game, no other opportunity for either team comes close.

xG timeline of the game courtesy of understat

It was a really good steal and pass (in one movement) by Nelson Semedo, who had shifted over to the left at half time. Pedro Neto found Daniel Podence but the return pass by the Wolves number ten was under-weighted. Neto recovered the ball well and still got away the lifted shot which agonisingly clipped the top of the bar but had Podence’s pass been played further in front of Neto, he may have been able to have a clearer one v one situation with the Chelsea goalkeeper.

Neto’s effort clips the top of the crossbar

It is difficult to be too hard on Neto, for the reason as explained above but also due to this being one of the two shots he took in the entire game.

Looking ahead

Attention now turns to Saturday’s fixture with Crystal Palace. Palace, like us, are not in great form and have been unusually porous at the back this season. They have had similar issues to Wolves in that they have struggled to have a settled back line due to various injuries.

The possession Palace will likely allow Wolves to have, the more chance there is to blend the defensive solidity shown in the Chelsea game with greater attacking threat. Palace have the second highest number of pressures in their own defensive third this season (behind West Brom), so they spend plenty of time defending in that area of the pitch. Willian José will have had a couple of training sessions before the game too and he won’t be too short of match fitness having played recently for Real Socieded. As a focal point of the team he will allow Wolves to play forwards earlier and press slightly higher.

Possible starting line up against Crystal Palace

This is how I expect Wolves to line up. Rayan Aït Nouri looks like he will miss out having come off at half time - Nuno could make a similar change in playing Nelson Semedo on the left with Ki-Jana Hoever on the right. Alternatively, he could play Romain Saïss like he did earlier in the season when there was a lack of options on that side. If Nuno wanted to play a back four, he might also play Saïss left back as he did against West Brom, though it seems unlikely he will want to revisit that just yet.

Daniel Podence made his return from injury on Wednesday too, so he could feasibly start instead of Adama Traore. Traore had a good game against Palace in the FA Cup a few weeks ago so I think he will get the nod on this occasion.

Joao Moutinho may also be an option to include in the midfield as Dendoncker and Neves both got through a lot of running against Chelsea. I think Nuno will stick but he may turn to Moutinho if the game requires more craft from the midfield.

Regardless, this game represents a good opportunity to turn the season around and have a stronger second half of the season than the first.