Hammer blow: Wolves 2 West Ham 3

Analysis of Wolves' home defeat to West Ham

It wasn’t a good few hours for Wolves fans.

First the news about Jonny’s recurrence of his ACL injury. Then hearing that Willy Boly (Covid) and João Moutinho (groin) were missing for the game. And then the first half of the game itself.

There was an equal sense of excitement and anxiety on how Wolves would perform in a 4231 formation. I’ve been advocating a switch to the set up for a while now, with the thought of Boly and Jonny in a back four allowing us to be more secure out of possession. With neither in this line up, mayhem ensued in the first half.

It was also a familiar tale as Wolves gave themselves a mountain to climb, conceding the first goal(s) in the game that ultimately left it just out of their reach.

---

Chaos in transition

It was hard to watch Wolves defensive play at times in the game, particularly immediately after they had lost possession.

When Wolves had the ball, they were positioning both full backs high up the pitch. Considering they rarely do this when playing with three centre backs, it was a surprised to see them do this with just Conor Coady and Romain Saïss at centre back. Every time West Ham regained possession, it felt like there was immediate danger to the Wolves backline.

Jesse Lingard’s goal after just five minutes sums up the issues Wolves had for much of the first half. When Lingard receives the ball, he is able to drive forward with the ball to create a 2v2 with Michael Antonio against Coady and Saïss.

Wolves shape at the back in the build up to Lingard’s goal

West Ham are a team who defend very deep and are very quick to break. They have had a lot of success playing this way this season and we learnt this the hard way at the start of the season when they thumped us 4-0. Wolves got caught not pressing high enough while still leaving space, and in the first half an hour of this game did exactly the same thing.

With Nélson Semedo and Rayan Aït Nouri both in positions where they will not be able to recover in time, it is unfathomable that Wolves would not have both (or at the very least one) of their defensive midfielders behind the ball.

Worse still, Wolves had several opportunities to stop the ball breaking to Lingard in the first place.

Not even a hint of a challenge

Daniel Podence, Rúben Neves and Aït Nouri all have opportunities to stop the ball going forwards, be that by winning the ball, delaying the opponent or fouling. All three barely even challenge for the ball and as a result Lingard can receive in acres of space. Leander Dendoncker then has the opportunity to ‘halt’ Lingard but allows him to skip across him instead of fouling and accepting a yellow card. Contrast this with the attitudes of Issa Diop and Craig Dawson, both inside the first ten minutes of the game…

West Ham pick up bookings inside the first ten minutes

The third West Ham goal is an even better example, where Lingard is chased by five (!) Wolves players and not a single one commits to a challenge before he plays the ball to Jarrod Bowen.

Tim Spiers @TimSpiers

Nuno: "I'm angry with myself and how we dealt with those situations (their counter attacks). "It's my responsibility. The attitude and intentions are always good. It's our responsibility, our mistakes and we will work on that."

Nuno has himself admitted that he got this aspect of Wolves’ game wrong. What will now be interesting is how he intends to rectify that ahead of the next game.

After about half an hour of the game, Neves and Dendoncker gradually began to position themselves more effectively and protect the two centre backs slightly better. However, that also coincided with Michail Antonio’s injury.

The question for Nuno will be whether he sticks with the back four and finds better ways to prevent teams counter-attacking so effectively against them, or go back to playing with three centre backs which naturally gives them one more player behind the ball.

---

A creative force?

It feels like there is no in-between with Wolves. When playing with three central defenders and wing-backs, it helps to solidify but creates problems at the other end where they barely create a single worthy chance in open play. When Wolves play 4231, they move the ball so much quicker, and open teams up a lot more effectively yet are so vulnerable to transitions.

When Wolves settled in possession, they created good chances from sustained periods of possession. Willian José had a presentable opportunity which he shot wide in the opening minutes, Adama Traoré had a similar opening that he struck straight at Łukasz Fabiański but the best chance Wolves had of the game fell to José and then Pedro Neto who shot over the bar with the goal gaping.

In the build up, Wolves have three players (Neto, Podence and Semedo) around Dendoncker on the right. I think it’s fair to say that in a 343, this would generally not be the case, it would be two players at most supporting the player on the ball in this position.

Dendoncker slides the ball to Podence in the penalty area

The extra player inside of the ball attracts the West Ham defenders which leaves more space for Daniel Podence. Dendoncker plays a very good forward (!) pass to Podence in the penalty area, and his cross creates the initial chance for José.

This build up play on the right hand side creates a 1v1 situation in the box for José while attacking the cross, a situation we have rarely seen him in for Wolves. Unfortunately, he couldn’t connect with the cross and as mentioned, Neto fired the rebound over the bar.

José and Neto fail to convert

Wolves had 20 shots to West Ham’s 9 in the game. Their shots amounted to 2.5 xG compared to West Ham’s 1.2 (according to fbref). If they can continue to create a similar amount of chances in games, it gives cause for optimism - particularly if Wolves can minimise the opposition threat in counter-attacking situations.

At half time, Wolves replaced Podence with Fábio Silva. Though his goal gave Wolves a way back into the game, the shape meant Wolves were slightly less fluid in possession and created less in general. Of course, West Ham were happy to sit back and defend their lead but Wolves found it harder to play between the lines and create chances.

Neto’s cross is slightly overhit

In the above example, Wolves didn’t have as many numbers around the player on the ball in wide areas as in the first half. Semedo’s only option is to play to Neto out wide, who crosses the ball from deep.

Traore during that attack is occupying space in the middle but not making himself available to Semedo like Podence might have in that situation. Although Wolves create a 3v3 in the box for the crossing situation, the cross is always coming from too far away to be truly dangerous.

In the 442, Wolves played off of less lines and so it was probably more comfortable to defend for West Ham in their compact shape. The one time Wolves did managed to feed the ball behind their defence, Neto fed Silva in for an excellent run and finish.

---

Up next: Fulham

Fulham have been an interesting team this season. They looked out of their depth in the first few games this season, but managed to bring in some good quality on loan towards the end of the transfer window. From then on, they have been competitive in almost every game, even if results have not always gone their way.

When Wolves beat Fulham at Molineux, it was off the back of that heavy defeat to West Ham. Wolves controlled most of the game, and took the lead through a fine Pedro Neto finish but Fulham did waste some good opportunities in the second half to steal a point.

Ademola Lookman is someone who has really impressed me for Fulham. He’s on loan from RB Leipzig, and been a key player for them. He’s someone I’d be keeping tabs on from a recruitment perspective for Wolves. His battle against Semedo could be key.

As mentioned, the big decision for Nuno is whether to employ a back three or stick with the back four that was so horribly exposed early on against West Ham. If the midfielders can position themselves appropriately and defend the transitions more effectively, I’d been keen to see us take the game to Fulham with the same front four that started against West Ham.

Willy Boly will not feature again,and although João Moutinho appears to have rejoined training, it may be a risk to throw him straight in after a groin injury. If Nuno does change the shape back to a 343 it would likely see Max Kilman return to the team. Kilman has been a dependable performer but if he wasn’t ‘trusted’ against West Ham, it may indicate he is not in Nuno’s long term thoughts.

The other alternative is that one of Owen Otasowie, Vitinha or Morgan Gibbs-White are given a chance in midfield if Leander Dendoncker was dropped into the defence. This seems unlikely, with none of those three yet to be given significant minutes on a consistent basis this season.