Eagles prey on struggling Wolves

A review of the Crystal Palace defeat and preview of Tuesday's game against Arsenal

The hopes that Wolves could build off the point earned at Stamford Bridge were quickly dashed by the performance and result in the defeat to Crystal Palace.

There can be no doubts that Wolves deserved to lose this game. Palace had the better chances in the game and more than matched them in the middle of the pitch.

Their game plan was a lot more effective than Wolves. They switched to a 4231 for the game, set their defensive line higher than Wolves did and with Eze as the number ten often had an overload in midfield.

xG timeline from understat.com

The above timeline makes for depressing reading. Consider some of Wolves’ second half performances in 2021; Brighton, Everton, Chorley and West Brom before this game, 0-0 at half time required a massive shift in attitude that this team is looking very far from achieving at the moment. A measly 0.45 xG created all game is very poor, and the majority of that came from a single player (more on him later). Palace took a deserved lead, even if Patricio should have done better, and then should have made it two through Zaha.

Passive, passive, passive

As mentioned in previous articles, Wolves have never been a high pressing team under Nuno. They’ve generally set up in a mid-block (low-block against the really, really good teams), and allowed teams to circulate possession until they could set a trap, steal the ball and break into space. A great example I always use of this is Wolves’ victory at Everton in the 2018/19 season:

Yes, Dendoncker really did score once

A brilliant steal in a wide area by Jonny, and Wolves were ready to pounce and flood forward with decent numbers. Currently, Wolves don’t seem able to position themselves to steal the ball in promising positions or have the energy or speed to break away. I think this is in part to do with the defensive line being too deep, especially the wing-backs who seem afraid to step out.

As a result, Wolves are starting counter attacks from far too deep. Here is a great example:

Wolves counter-attack leads to an overhit cross

Wolves win the ball and Daniel Podence is able to feed the ball to Pedro Neto. Neto is a great ball carrier and he drives up the pitch well here, but the team is so deep at the point of the turnover that even if they had managed to join Neto in numbers, Crystal Palace are able to recover, something they do well in general anyway. As a result, Neto crosses from the right and only Podence and Willian José are in the box, with Semedo arriving slightly later.

It’s certainly a pattern, as we see a similar example in the second half too

Neto tries to break through the resolute Palace defence

Once again, although Wolves are able to break into some space in wide areas it’s never really threatening the Palace goal nor are the team as a unit in positions to be able to quickly join the attack. In this example Podence has to slow down and play across to Neto, by which point Palace have done well to recover and get bodies in front of the ball.

It’s quite tough repeating the same things, week after week, but simply put Nuno and Wolves are going to need to take a more proactive approach if they want to be able to create more chances and score more goals.

Encouraging signs from Willian José

One small crumb of comfort might be what we saw of Willian José. On another day, the new signing making his full debut may well have got on the scoresheet. He was able to make three attempts in the game. Two were headers from set pieces, one of which he may feel he could have directed away from Vicente Guaita better, though it was a decent reflex save. His other chance came as a result of good movement in the box to get on the end of a cross.

A good example of what he may offer for the team when building attacks is the events that lead to his effort in the 56th minute.

Willian José drops in to receive from Kilman

As Max Kilman steps forward with the ball, José is drops into the space between the Crystal Palace defence and midfield to switch the point of attack over to Ki-Jana Hoever. Hoever then combines with Dendoncker and Podence in a rare good example of a wide combination…

Willian José’s shot is tipped over by Guaita

José’s movement in this instance is good to find space away from Kouyate, and Podence picks him out well with the cross. Had he caught the shot slightly earlier it may have caught Guaita out but it was a decent effort from a fairly difficult chance. In general, he held the ball up reasonably well, combined with those around him and looked strong.

We can see now though that Nuno no longer has the excuse of no senior centre forward, as the new signing has demonstrated he has the physical and technical attributes to be a good player at this level.

A chance to quickly put it right… again

As I’ve heard Conor Coady say a few times recently, with the schedule how it is this season the team quickly have the chance to put things right with another game right around the corner.

In this case we face a resurgent Arsenal side in very different circumstances to the one we beat at the Emirates. Back in November, Wolves deservedly won that game with arguably their best performance of the season. With Podence, Traore and Neto behind the striker, Wolves played an exciting brand of football, particularly for the first sixty minutes and it felt like there was a real platform to develop on, even with the serious injury to Raú Jiménez.

Arsenal have won five of their last seven league games, conceding just two goals in that time. They do however, have some fitness issues. The two key influences on their recent form, Bukayo Saka and Kieran Tierney, both missed the last game against Manchester United. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang also looks set to miss the game.

Thomas Partey will be also key for them in the middle of the pitch, should he start. He has made them harder to play through as well as being comfortable on the ball and starting attacks. They also now have Martin Ødegaard, recently signed on loan from Real Madrid. He is a wonderful creative talent that Wolves will need to be wary of.

It seems hard to imagine Nuno will change tack and take the game to Arsenal, but with our recent lethargic second half performances, it might be wise to be more proactive in the first half at the moment. Whether it’s a 4231 or 343, Wolves need to find energy and aggression in what they do in order to resemble some type of attacking threat.

Expected line up

I expect a similar team but with Neves back in after the birth of his child and Adama Traore back in the attack. There is a lack of options in the wing-back department but I’d worry if Ki-Jana Hoever had to play against Kieran Tierney. Leander Dendoncker barely deserves his place but he is the only physical option that it appears Nuno trusts, as Owen Otasowie has not been used since he returned from illness. If Nuno did shake things up, even a player like Morgan Gibbs-White might add more mobility and attacking intent to the team from central areas. It’s easy to say to change the team for the sake of it considering the current form but the team needs a spark.

With two home games this coming week, Wolves need a win from somewhere.